If you’ve ever wondered how sports odds work, you’re not alone. With terms like “moneyline,” “spread,” and “over/under” being tossed around, it can feel a bit like learning a new language. But once you understand the basics, it all starts to make sense—let’s break it down.
Moneylines: Picking the Winner
The moneyline (ML) is the simplest way to bet: you’re picking which team you think will win. American odds are displayed as positive or negative numbers.
- Negative odds (e.g., -150): This shows how much you need to bet to win $100. For example, betting $150 on a -150 team would net you $100 in profit if they win. A team with negative odds is called the “favorite”.
- Positive odds (e.g., +200): This shows how much you would win if you bet $100. Betting $100 on a +200 team would earn you $200 if they win. A team with positive odds is called the “underdog”.
Moneylines are straightforward: pick a winner, and if your team comes through, you win.
Point Spreads: Leveling the Playing Field
Sometimes, one team is heavily favored to win. That’s where the point spread comes in. The spread gives the underdog a “head start” in terms of points, making the bet more interesting.
- If a team is -7, they need to win by more than 7 points for a bet on them to pay out.
- If a team is +7, they can lose by up to 6 points—or win outright—and a bet on them still wins.
Spreads are about more than picking the winner; they challenge you to predict by how much a team will win or lose.
Score Totals (Over/Under): Betting on the Points
Instead of betting on a winner, you can bet on the total number of points scored in a game. The sportsbook sets a number, like 48.5, and you choose:
- Over: You think the combined score will be higher than 48.5.
- Under: You think the combined score will be lower than 48.5.
This type of bet is perfect if you have a sense of how high- or low-scoring a game will be, but aren’t sure which team will win.
You’ll often see spreads or totals listed with a .5, like 7.5 points or 48.5 points. The “half-point” ensures there’s no tie (or “push”)—your bet either wins or loses. For example, if the total is 48.5 and the final score adds up to 48, the “under” wins; if it adds up to 49, the “over” wins.
A Quick Note on Implied Probability
All of these bets tie back to the concept of implied probability—basically, the likelihood that a particular outcome will happen. American odds can be converted into percentages to give a rough sense of this. For example:
- -150 odds imply about a 60% chance to win.
- +200 odds imply about a 33% chance to win.
While you don’t need to memorize the math, it’s helpful to know that odds are a reflection of both the risk and the potential reward.
Sports odds can seem complicated at first, but understanding moneylines, spreads, and totals is a big step toward following—and enjoying—the action. Remember, it’s all about making informed guesses, and, most importantly, having fun.