Georgia @ Alabama: Georgia -2.5
This season, Georgia has quietly reasserted itself as one of the more disciplined, hard-to-break teams in college football. Their defense (long the backbone of the program under Kirby Smart) remains among the nation’s best. What that means: even if the offense sputters, Georgia rarely gives up easy points. Over 12 games, they’ve held opponents to just about 290.8 yards per game, with a total defense efficiency (yards per play) among the more stingy in power-5.
On top of base defensive strength, Georgia’s second-half defense has been particularly dominant. Multiple games this season (including SEC matchups) saw the Bulldogs blank their opponents in entire quarters, even when the first half was competitive. That suggests that Georgia isn’t a team that gives up late leads or falls apart under pressure; instead, they tighten up and control games down the stretch — key when you’re only two-and-a-half points favorites.
Offensively, the Bulldogs have settled in under starting quarterback Gunner Stockton, who has shown growth this season. He’s been efficient — mixing passing with enough mobility — and the offense overall averages roughly 32.2 points per game, while only allowing about 16.7 points per contest. That balance makes them tough to defend: opponents can’t just stack the box to stop the run or sit back to guard the pass, because Georgia shifts between both.
Another big reason to lean Georgia: situational performance. In SEC play and against solid competition, they’ve repeatedly made timely stops and executed when it matters most — especially late in games. That kind of composure under pressure tends to shine through when spreads are modest (-2.5), because one good defensive stand or one big drive can swing the final margin.
Finally, there’s something to be said about their track record under pressure and expectations. As one of the SEC’s elite programs in recent years, Georgia is used to high-stakes games. Even with roster turnover or younger players, the culture — disciplined defense, measured offense, and mental toughness — seems intact.
We expect Georgia to win tonight, likely by more than a field goal, as long as they play with their usual discipline on defense and don’t turn the ball over on offense.