Eagles @ Chargers: Eagles -2.5
This matchup sets up well for Philadelphia — despite some red flags, the conditions favor a gritty Eagles win by a field goal or more. First, the number itself (–2.5) feels defendable. The Eagles have been solid against the spread recently: in their last 18 games they’re 12-6 ATS, which suggests they’re used to covering even when expectations and performance waver.
On defense, Philadelphia still has enough to make things difficult for the Chargers. Los Angeles comes in with questions: their QB Justin Herbert is dealing with a hand injury from a recent surgery, and while he plans to play, that kind of issue can make protection and ball security noticeably trickier. Their offensive line is already a weak link this season, registering one of the highest pressure rates in the league. That makes the pass rush and front-seven for the Eagles potentially dangerous — a disrupted Chargers offense increases the chance Philly can control the game, possession by possession.
Offensively, while the Eagles haven’t been spectacular this year, they do still have playmakers and a balanced enough attack to grind out drives. Running back Saquon Barkley and WRs like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith give them enough weapons to keep the Chargers defense honest. And in a game where the Chargers may struggle to protect Herbert or establish a clean rhythm, that balanced Eagles offense doesn’t need to light up the scoreboard — they just need efficient, mistake-free drives.
Finally, momentum and context matter. The Eagles are aware that this game could have playoff implications, and that can sharpen focus, particularly if the Chargers look vulnerable early. A few defensive stops, a few steady drives, and the environment may tilt toward a close but controlled Eagles win.
Given the Chargers’ offensive vulnerabilities (injuries, weak line) and the Eagles’ decent track record ATS — plus a defensive edge that could force turnovers or stalled drives — Philadelphia looks positioned to win by at least a field goal.